AFL ‘panic merchants’ buried in wild spree; ugly trend Swans still must change — 3-2-1 (2024)

Sydney have all but claimed the minor premiership, after a stunning 12-goal second-half bombarded the Bombers, winning 15.8 (98) to Essendon’s 8.11 (59).

Brad Scott’s side looked the better team in the first two quarters, however could only manage to take a five-point lead into the main break.

From there, the Swans surged after half time with the likes of Isaac Heeney, Luke Parker and Will Hayward guiding the red and white home after yet another slow start.

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The third quarter of Heeney (12 disposals, five score involvements, one goal) and Parker (nine disposals, two goals) in particular stood tall among others, and evidently, the Bombers had no answers for the Swans’ most seasoned senior players.

The win essentially locks away the home-and-away flag, with an incredibly improbable run of results needing to transpire for them to lose top spot.

THE 3-2-1... (with Jack Jovanovski)

3. SLOW-STARTING JUGGERNAUT COMES TO THE PARTY

It was another nonchalant start by the ladder-leading Sydney Swans, but they just know when to turn it on — pumping Essendon to claim their 16th win of the season.

Friday night’s victory means Sydney has now won five of its past six matches against Essendon, improving on its 69 per cent win rate at Marvel Stadium since 2020.

The slow-starting Swans were galvanised into action after half-time — similarly to how they were in the final term of last week’s stirring win over Collingwood — overcoming a threatening Bombers outfit after again falling behind at the first change.

Despite sitting fourth in the AFL for the season, Sydney has ranked dead last for points-from-turnover differential (-24.0) over the past five weeks — but it pounced on Essendon’s missteps in the third and fourth terms.

The Swans were led admirably in particular by Luke Parker and Ollie Florent, who were awarded increased midfield time due to the sidelined Chad Warner (calf), while electric forward Tom Papley (ankle) and reliable ball-carrier Justin McInerney (knee) also remained absent.

Parker, who has had a continually interrupted campaign and whose name has recently arisen in trade rumours, was impactful both in attack and between the arcs — especially in the third term when he notched nine disposals, 222 metres gained, two goals and three score involvements in the period alone.

It wasn’t a highlight-reel product for the Swans the entire night, though, as they were again uninspiring at the outset — only gaining the ascendancy in the second half.

Melbourne great Garry Lyon wasn’t impressed by Sydney’s first-half showing.

“Flat, lethargic, an inability to pressure Essendon,” he said on Fox Footy. “Between the arcs, the contested number was scary.”

In the third period, the gears shifted for Longmire’s side, with the Swans piling on six third-quarter goals to Essendon’s one to take a 21-point advantage into the final change.

“First goal of the (second half) goes to Luke Parker — he was absolutely sensational — and he was matched by Isaac Heeney,” Lyon said at three-quarter-time.

“They were both devilishly quiet in that first half, but they came to life and it seemed to energise the rest of the group … the highest two rated players on the ground, and all of a sudden they’ve got a 21-point lead.”

Brisbane Lions legend Jonathan Brown added: “We saw it last week in the last quarter against Collingwood …. They can explode.”

The steadied Swans closed it out in the final quarter, adding another six goals to their tally to prevail comprehensively by 39 points.

2. ESSEN-DONE: ‘PANIC MERCHANTS’ GO OUT WITH A WHIMPER

Essendon’s finals hopes are done and dusted — barring the absolute pinnacle of miracles in the final fortnight of the regular season — after going down to Sydney for the fifth time in the past six occasions.

Agonisingly, it did so after dominating the first-half portion of the game.

But despite owning the play in the opening quarter, the Bombers were wasteful with many of their early opportunities.

The home side owned territory but couldn’t capitalise enough to instil a comfortable buffer — going at just a 20 per cent scores-per-inside-50 clip, compared to Sydney’s 40 per cent.

In a scrappy, turnover-laden tussle of a second term, Essendon stretched its slender lead by just two points to seven by the time the half-time siren sounded.

Dylan Shiel was one of Essendon’s best, recording a game-high 19 disposals and four clearances to half-time — he finished the evening with 30 tocuhes and six clearances with a disposal efficiency of 80.8 per cent.

“Essendon’s midfield are smashing — Shiel, (Jye) Caldwell, (Darcy) Parish — and that’s without putting (Zach) Merrett and (Sam) Durham in there, (Nic) Martin on the wing; just absolutely annihilating a Sydney midfield that’s got such great talent,” former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley told Fox Footy’s half-time coverage.

By the main change, Essendon had generated 28 points from the midfield zone, 26 more contested possessions than Sydney, 10 more clearances, and nine more ground-ball gets.

However, the third quarter was when it all turned pear-shaped for the Dons, conceding 13 of the game’s final 17 goals to fall to a 39-point defeat.

“This Essendon side could be the biggest bunch of panic merchants in the AFL,” Lyon told Fox Footy’s coverage on Friday night.

“When the pressure didn’t come early in the game, they got comfortable … it’s not going to be good watching for Bomber fans.”

In addition to having to beat the vaunted Lions in Brisbane next Saturday night, Essendon now needs one of the seventh-placed Western Bulldogs or eighth-placed Hawthorn to lose both of their last two home-and-away games in order to qualify for the finals.

Put simply, it ain’t happening. In its final home game of the 2024 season, Essendon disappointed its home faithful one more time.

1. ‘SAME OLD’ UGLY SWANS TREND THAT NEEDS TO CHANGE BEFORE SEPTEMBER

Despite Friday night’s come-from-behind victory, the Swans’ lacklustre first quarters remain a glaring concern for coach John Longmire, especially with a crucial finals campaign nearing.

Sydney has now won just eight of 22 (36 per cent) opening terms this season — a staggeringly low number considering its dominance in 2024.

That ugly trend continued on Friday, as Longmire’s brigade again surrendered a quarter-time lead and was forced to come from behind.

Granted, the Swans trailed Essendon by just five points at the first change, but it should have been more.

A hungry and desperate Bombers outfit simply outmuscled Sydney at the source to start proceedings, as the Swans trailed 26-45 in the contested possession count at the first change.

They were also -14 for uncontested possessions, -10 for inside-50s, -27 for disposals and -3 for clearances.

“It was the same old Swans with that first quarter fadeout; not being there to be able and stake a claim, especially after their last quarter heroics last week,” Collingwood icon Nathan Buckley told Fox Footy’s coverage at quarter-time.

“Four scoring shots each (at QT) isn’t representative of how the game (was) played, Essendon had all the territory.

“The conversation at quarter time for the Swans would’ve been pretty similar to the last three or four weeks: ‘Come on boys, let’s get to work and get our hands dirty’.”

Influential midfielders Isaac Heeney and James Rowbottom were limited to just one disposal each at the first break, while Luke Parker was without a touch after starting forward.

While Sydney wrested some territory back in the waning moments of the period, the quarter indubitably belonged to the home side.

The Swans’ consistently second-rate starts have been one of the season’s unsolvable mysteries — and it continues to give cause for concern as September approaches.

Come finals time, these sorts of first-quarter outputs simply won’t suffice — and with questions already hanging over Sydney’s premiership legitimacy following a recent torrid stretch, it is a problem ‘Horse’ needs to saddle.

ESSENDON v SYDNEY - AS IT HAPPENED

There were no late changes for either side, with Jye Menzie (Bombers) and Corey Warner (Swans) the respective substitutes for each team.

It took 10 and a half minutes, but the Bombers finally kicked the first goal of the game after a slow start from both sides - courtesy of Nic Martin sneaking up forward.

And it didn’t take long for him to convert again, kicking from 55 metres out to nail Essendon’s second and give them the early boost.

Sydney’s Caiden Cleary had the instant reply though, snapping beautifully less than 30 seconds later for his second career goal and his side’s first of the night.

In incredible scenes, Bombers ruck Sam Draper decided to snap from a set shot directly in front of goal, but managed to convert for his side’s third.

Swan Braeden Campbell snapped a ripping goal from the left forward pocket to narrow the margin, but yet again in 2024, Sydney trailed their opponents at the first break.

The scorecard read: Essendon 3.1 (19) leading Essendon 2.2 (14).

Dylan Shiel led the match for disposals with nine of his own, while Darcy Parish’s three inside 50s was also a game high.

Nick Blakey had four intercept possessions from his seven touches in the first term.

Jake Stringer kicked the first for the second quarter, with Sydney’s Luke Parker and Essendon’s Jade Gresham following up with minor scores.

After just one disposal in the opening quarter, Isaac Heeney nailed a set shot from distance to bring back the Swans’ deficit to just one goal halfway through the second quarter.

Incredibly, that goal ended up being the second and final one for the quarter - with the Swans trailing by seven points at the main break.

The scoreboard read: Essendon 4.5 (29) to Sydney’s 3.4 (22).

Melbourne great Garry Lyon gave the Swans a bath at on Fox Footy’s half-time coverage, very unimpressed with their efforts so far.

“This is the top of the ladder of the team who are limping towards the finals series … their forward line is not dangerous,” Lyon exclaimed.

“The sloppiness in which they’ve been able to tackle, and allow the Essendon players get through (isn’t good enough),” four-time Hawthorn premiership player Jordan Lewis added.

Sydney had a tackle efficiency of 63 per cent at half time, and a pressure rating of 172.

“That ain’t winning you finals that sort of stuff,” Lyon added.

The Swans looked a totally different team to start the second half, but Parker, Campbell and Heeney all kicking goals inside the first 10 minutes to send the Dons into total disarray.

Essendon’s Harrison Jones found himself on the end of a centring ball, marking and kicking truly from set shot to make the margin five points in favour of Sydney.

Parker kicked his second of the third term and the Swans’ fourth with five minutes to run in the premiership quarter - a great revival from his disposal-less opening 30 minutes.

Hayward followed up instantly with a snap across goal from medium-range, and pushed his side’s lead back to 16 points.

And good mate Ollie Florent was just as quick to back it up, drilling a major on the run from the right forward pocket to leave Essendon in dire straights.

Bomber Jake Stringer missed a simple set shot after the siren to narrow the margin, with the Swans taking a 21-point lead into the final quarter.

Fox Footy’s Lyon this time came after Essendon for their woeful term, as their marginal finals hopes looked all but gone.

“This Essendon side could be the biggest bunch of panic merchants in the AFL - when the pressure didn’t come early in the game, they got comfortable … it’s not going to be good watching for Bomber fans.” Lyon said at the final break.

Jye Caldwell kicked the first goal of the fourth quarter, but it was quickly cancelled put by Parker’s third for the night.

Heeney kicked his third to continue his huge second half, with Kyle Langford responding before Joel Amartey put through back-to-back goals to give the Swans a 33-point lead with half a quarter to play.

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